Announcing the 12 New Acting Members of the Oscars Acting Branch

My parlor game in which I predict the Academy’s New Actors

Orrin Konheim

--

Credit: Marshal Knight, LaughingPlace

What if the Academy publicly invited 12 people a year into their acting branch and made a big deal about it with a ceremony of its own (like the Oscar Academy Luncheon)? Wouldn’t that be better than a press release? It could also help combat complaints of diversity because whether the minorities win, they at least get their own ceremony.

The Academy currently includes a press release with 200 or so new members with a number that varies in the acting branch, but what if the acting branch was constant? :

I did a simulation where I pick the 12 every year with the criteria that they had to be in a film that came out that year.

So if I had to pick the 12 from this year that aren’t in the Academy. My guesses are based on my own simulation that I’ve run since 2007 .

I would say:
1 Jacob Elordi (Saltburn, Priscilla)

2 Michael Cera (Barbie)

3 Pete Davidson (Dumb Money)

4 Maya Hawke (Maestro, Asteroid City)

5 Ramy Yousef (Poor Things)

6 Scott Shephard (Killers of the Flower Moon)

7 Tracee Ellis Ross (American Fiction)

8 John Magaro (Past Lives)

9 Greta Lee (Past Lives)

10 Chris Messina (Air, I.S.S.)

11 Charles Melton (May December)

12 Issa Rae (Barbie)

Just missed: Matt Mahler (Air), Marlon Wayans (Air), Kumail Nanjiani (Migration), John Magaro (Past Lives), Cara Jade Meyers (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sara Silverman (Maestro), Taron Eggerton (Tetris)

Some notes:
1. In some cases, these represent strong TV resumes (Ross, Rae, Yousef, Cera) who have less film resumes
2. In some cases, they are people who have had big years, while in some cases (Nanjiani, Davidson), it’s reached a tipping point where they’re resumes are long enough that it’s time to let them in
3. I try to have diversity not just with racce and gender but with age (Scott Shephard) and character vs. lead actor
4. My general rule is one outstanding performance that almost got you nominated for Oscar won’t get you in like Dominic Sessa or Callie Spaney, but one outstanding performance with a bit of a resume behind it (Melton) is closer to getting in.

--

--

Orrin Konheim

Freelance journalist w/professional bylines in 3 dozen publications, writing coach, google me. Patreon: http://www.patreon/com/okjournalist Twitter: okonh0wp